Is the buildout growing as fast as planned?
The hyperscalers spend less than planned, and the buildout slows.
The AI Boom, Since ChatGPT.
$32.4 trillion has been added to the S&P 500, $19.8 trillion above historical pace.
11 companies created more than half the market’s added value.
$825 billion. Hyperscalers will spend more on infrastructure this year than in the 17 years before ChatGPT combined.
S&P 500 MARKET VALUE ADDED SINCE CHATGPT
2.6× historical growth ($32.4T)
ABOVE HISTORICAL PACE$19.8T
AT HISTORICAL PACE (EST.)$12.6T
S&P 500 BY CALENDAR YEAR
- 2021+28.7%
- 2022−18.1%
- 2023+26.3%
- 2024+25.0%
- 2025+17.9%
- 2026 YTD+11.8%
Two straight years over 24%, the first since 1997–98 and the dot com bubble.
COMPANY MARKET VALUE SINCE CHATGPT
$20.3Tof the $32.4T added to the S&P 500 came from 11 companies
More than half of the market’s added value since ChatGPT came from the 11 public companies below, now 3.4× their launch-day value.
5of the world’s largest companies have 10×’d in value since ChatGPT
NVIDIA, Anthropic, SpaceX, OpenAI and Micron have each grown more than tenfold since ChatGPT launched. Each is now worth more than $1.2T.
PUBLIC COMPANIES · scale in trillions
NVIDIA$5.50T13.2×
Apple$4.86T2.1×
Alphabet$4.19T3.2×
Microsoft$3.81T2.0×
Amazon$2.69T2.7×
SpaceXpress figure$1.99T≈16×
Broadcom$1.68T7.3×
Meta$1.85T5.9×
Tesla$1.40T2.3×
Micron$1.20T19.1×
AMD$999B8.0×
Intel$606B4.9×
NOV 30, 2022SEP 30, 2026
PRIVATE COMPANIES · scale in billions
OpenAIreported, in talks$1.4T≈100×
Anthropicreported IPO target$2T+≈500×
NOV 30, 2022REPORTED
End marks are reported, not closed rounds. OpenAI $1.4T: reported, in talks, September 29, 2026; last closed round $852B, March 2026. Anthropic $2T+: reported IPO target, September 28, 2026; last closed round $965B, May 2026. Starting marks are press reports, so both multiples are approximate. Why it’s approximate ↓
SpaceX was still private in 2022, so its starting mark is a press report and it sits outside the $20.3T total. How this is calculated ↓
HYPERSCALER CAPITAL SPENDING SINCE CHATGPT
$825Bin 2026420% since 2022
AmazonAlphabetMicrosoftMetaOracle
2026: actual + remaining plan. *$825B is the midpoint of $810–840B in guidance. What the estimate includes ↓ · What the figures include ↓
THE RISKS BEHIND THE HEADLINES
Three risks to watch.
Are customers buying what’s being built?
AI and cloud sales grow more slowly than the capacity being built for them.
Can they afford to keep going?
Spending outruns the cash the businesses generate, and the gap has to be borrowed or issued on terms that get harder.
COMMON QUESTIONS