Do spending plans hold?
Watch for cuts, delays and changes in how infrastructure is financed.
Research snapshot · September 11, 2026Dated sources. No live feed connected.
THE BIG PICTURE
The AI bubble, since ChatGPT.
How big it’s become. Where the money goes. What to watch next.
30 NOV 2022The starting pointHow we measure it
THE STOCK MARKET SINCE CHATGPT
The market has run far ahead of history.
The broad market surged—and the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 climbed even faster.
Price gains · dividends excludedNasdaq-100+141.9%
NOV 30, 2022 → SEP 10, 2026
S&P 500+86.1%
NOV 30, 2022 → SEP 10, 2026
Historical S&P average+34.1%
AVERAGE GAIN OVER 45 MONTHS · 1957–2022
The current gains use daily closing levels. The historical comparison averages 743 rolling 45-month periods using monthly-average S&P prices. These gains are not a measure of gains caused by AI.
2026 ACTUAL + PLANNED CAPITAL SPENDING
$825B420% since 2022
Five infrastructure giants. One accelerating buildout.
AmazonAlphabetMicrosoftMetaOracle
2026: actual + remaining plan. *$825B is the midpoint of $810–840B in guidance. Oracle adds a $92.5B midpoint from its June 2026–May 2027 fiscal-year plan.
Oracle’s 2022–2025 calendar figures are interpolated from reported trailing-four-quarter cash capex. 2026 guidance uses mixed periods and accounting definitions. Includes non-AI spending.
Sources & methodologySPENT OVER THREE YEARS
$810B
Combined capital spending, 2023–2025
ANNUAL GROWTH IN 2025
+72.9%
Up from $240B in 2024
THE QUESTIONS BEHIND THE HEADLINES
Three signals to watch.
Does demand keep up?
Track data-center revenue, margins and the next quarter’s outlook together.
Does the revenue follow?
Compare what AI businesses earn with their growing compute commitments.
FOLLOW THE DEVELOPMENTS
What changed?
CoreWeave’s contracted revenue reaches $104 billion.
Its second-quarter revenue was $2.6 billion. The much larger backlog represents future services, subject to delivery requirements.
Why it mattersAI demand is also flowing through independent cloud providers, beyond the biggest tech companies.
CoreWeave earnings releaseA new financing push targets more than $500 billion.
NVIDIA and six financial firms announced platforms intended to mobilize capital for AI infrastructure over time.
Why it mattersThe buildout increasingly connects technology companies with lenders and investment funds. This target is not money already spent.
NVIDIA announcementBEHIND THE NUMBERS
Who’s involved?
A connected ecosystem. More than just the biggest tech stocks.
MicrosoftAmazonAlphabetMetaOracleCoreWeaveNebiusIRENLambdaCrusoeNscale
Follow spending, customer contracts, debt and operating costs. The spending chart includes Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta and Oracle.
Coverage is expanding. Names here are not all included in the spending chart. Coverage & sources ↗
KNOW WHAT YOU’RE LOOKING AT
Big numbers.
Clear definitions.
Every number needs a scope, a date, and a source.